A global wealth expert has shared his thoughts on Zoopla’s latest House Price Index, released today (29 Nov).
The report predicts that the UK’s housing market is bouncing back, with the number of sales expected to increase by 5% in 2024.
In a surprising prediction, the HPI also reveals that north England, Midlands, Scotland and Wales will out-perform the South of England.
But global wealth expert, Islay Robinson – who has been a broker for 20 years – says this prediction very much “bucks the trend”.
“Many people’s confidence and perceived wealth are inextricably linked to house prices,” said the founder of Enness Global in Mayfair, London.
“Therefore, a return to growth across the UK more generally is very much to be welcomed.
“However, it is intriguing to note predictions that the South is expected to lag behind in the coming year.
“If this comes to fruition, it would very much buck the trend and our experience at Enness Global.
“Particularly with regards to high-value housing stock, which traditionally over-indexes in London and the South more generally and has been remarkably robust in recent times.”
The fastest price rises are registered in Oldham (3.7%), Wigan (3.9%) and Belfast (6.5%), according to the HPI.
Growth remains below 1% across southern England where affordability pressures are an ongoing drag on the scale of house price growth.
Price falls are being recorded in pockets led by Ipswich (-1.1%), Truro (-1.2%) and Dartford (-1.2%).
The north-south divide in house price inflation is reportedly set to remain over 2025.
Unsurprisingly, the HPI also shows incomes will need to grow faster than prices to improve affordability.
The average house price is currently £267,200 – having increased by 1.5% over the last 12 months, which equates to £3,900.
First-time buyers will remain the largest buyer group.
Overall, the housing market has seen a boost in 2024, with UK house prices recording average growth of 1.5% in the 12 months to October 2024, up from -1.2% a year ago.
Sales agreed over the last four weeks are currently up 19% year-on-year, with buyer demand 25% higher over the same period.
The sales market is on track for 1.1m sales completions over 2024 – 10% higher than in 2023.
This number is predicted to rise by 5% over 2025, increasing to 1.15m.
Last year, Zoopla reported that UK homes were over-valued by 16% as a result of the jump in mortgage rates.
Rising incomes and lower mortgage rates over 2024 have removed this over-valuation without the need for prices to fall further.
This means the housing market has largely adjusted to higher mortgage rates, opening up the opportunity for continued modest growth in prices, which are expected to increase by 2.5% over 2025 – assuming mortgage rates average 4.25% over the year ahead.
